After offering the dwell takeaways and lingering questions from this week’s’ sport, we take a fast evaluation of the matchup after evaluating the televised gameplay from the Jaguars EverBank Stadium residence opener.
As a be aware, this evaluation relies on the non-all-22 movie, whereas being revealed earlier than the PFF grades are launched (in an effort to stay actually uninfluenced and unbiased on what we see). Moreover, this type of evaluation knowingly locations some limitations on evaluating secondary play with out confirming the complete protection seems to be. With that stated, let’s get into some takeaways from the Jaguars’ 26-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers.
*Any opinions famous are these of Travis and never of your complete BCC workers or management. After all, anybody can disagree when evaluating movie. Any famous EPA, Success Price, or different knowledge was retrieved from rbsdm.com. Extra knowledge supplied by NFL Professional and NextGenStats.
- EPA = anticipated factors added (statistical metric utilized in soccer analytics to measure how effectively a crew performs relative to expectation on a person play, primarily based on elements like subject place, down and distance, and time remaining to quantify what number of factors a crew is predicted to attain on a drive)
- SR = success price (% of performs with optimistic EPA)
- 1st% = % of performs that earned first downs
- CPOE = completion share over anticipated
- ADoT = common depth of goal
- ADoT and CMP% could not match official statistics attributable to excluding spikes & throwaways
1. Quarterback Play Analysis
On 33 performs, QB Trevor Lawrence had:
- 0.07 EPA per play falls inside the fiftieth percentile of all QBs between 2010 and 2020 with minimal 5 performs per sport
- A complete EPA of two.3 is within the forty ninth percentile (just under median)
- 7.9 common depth of goal (ADOT) is within the forty third percentile (beneath median)
- -4.1 completion share over anticipated (CPOE) is within the thirty second percentile (beneath median)
- 48% Success Price (% of performs with optimistic EPA)
- 33% First Down Share (% of performs that earned first downs)
- 74.4 QB ranking
In entire, that is a kind of uncommon video games the place the superior statistics fairly precisely match the play on tape. Lawrence started his day with an environment friendly first half, taking what the protection gave them whereas additionally capitalizing on the early defensive turnover. On the half, one may even say he performed nice ball management, sport supervisor soccer by not putting the soccer in hurt’s method, maintaining the offense on schedule with 4 scoring drives on 5 makes an attempt. When the routes weren’t there, he scrambled (twice) to rapidly what was out there to maneuver on to the following play. Outdoors of his first drive, first down intentional grounding penalty, it was a top quality half of enjoying inside the offense (0.22 EPA per play and 4.2 complete EPA on 19-plays).
Nonetheless, after halftime, Lawrence was one for six with a late third quarter interception on a Travis Hunter underthrow – Trevor’s largest error on the day. Whereas it was an unimaginable interception by Horn, Lawrence appeared to be studying the cornerback your complete method. As soon as Horn by no means breaks on the beneath route by Thomas Jr, both Lawrence doesn’t see Horn or he merely believes he would be capable to thread the needle over the defender.
With the crew nursing a 17-point fourth quarter lead, Jacksonville went into ball management mode after the interception, solely trying six extra passes for 33-yards. In entire, it was a top quality first two quarters of profitable soccer, one quarter of tough gameplay, and one quarter of maintaining the clock operating leading to a Jaguars victory in a sport the place Trevor Lawrence has lower than a 90 QB ranking (a rarity in Doug Pederson’s tenure).
- LeQuint Allen: 1.19 EPA per play on one second quarter dashing try, a third-and-three 7-yard dashing try for a primary down.
- Travis Etienne: 0.05 EPA per play on his 16 rushes, selecting up a primary down on 18% of his rushes and on 33% of his three targets.
- Tank Bigsby: -0.21 EPA per play on his 6 rushes (together with these penalized), selecting up a primary down on 17% of his rushes, with a 17% success price.
- Bhayshul Tuten: -0.31 EPA per play on his three rushes, selecting up a primary down on 33% of his rushes and a 33% success price on the bottom.
With a 47% success price on 17 rushes (together with penalized performs), Etienne’s day was clearly fairly dominant on this one. Travis Etienne’s 148 yards dashing have been probably the most dashing yards of any Jacksonville operating again since Etienne’s 156-yard sport in week 8 of the 2022 season in opposition to the Denver Broncos. Nonetheless, this wasn’t a state of affairs the place an extended landing rush inflated the stats. Etienne had 4 explosive rushes of 10-plus yards. Even with out the 71-yard rush Travis averaged 4.8 yards per carry (72 yards on the 15 further rushes).
Tuten’s tough EPA scoring can be one the place the info and the movie don’t actually line up, as Tuten’s 8-yard rush on first-and-10 and 3-yard rush on second-and-two would point out the next success price than 33%, although a primary down rush with underneath two minutes to go doesn’t improve your odds of scoring a landing earlier than the half considerably. His superior knowledge was primarily dinged attributable to a fourth quarter rush for no achieve on first-and-10, the place the crew was seeking to run out the clock (4:39 remaining within the fourth).
As a be aware, LeQuint Allen had -0.72 EPA per play on his one goal within the passing sport, a primary quarter 4-yard catch the place he was unable to interrupt the deal with in house. Neither Bigsby nor Tuten have been focused within the passing sport, whereas Travis Etienne was 0.03 EPA per play on his three targets.
The offensive line had a fairly stout day, throughout the board with the few blocking breakdowns that did happen exhibiting up within the run sport when passing off the defender of their mixture blocks. Patrick Mekari passing off the defender (Wharton) off to Anton Harrison, the place Anton was unable to cross his face resulted within the first Etienne stuff, whereas Mekari getting pushed again by Derrick Brown resulted in Tuen’s forth quarter stuff. That is type of an anticipated situation within the run sport earlier into the season, however notable on a day the place Jacksonville had simply three rushes for no achieve.
- TE Hunter Lengthy: 1.97 EPA per play, on 1 reception (a landing catch), leading to a 100% success price
- TE Brenton Unusual: 1.75 EPA per play on 4 receptions, with a 100% success price, and 75% of his receptions going for first downs.
- WR Dyami Brown: Led the receiving group with 1.23 EPA per play on 4 receptions, a 75 % success price with 3/4 of his targets going for first downs (IE: each catch).
- TE Johnny Mundt: -0.56 EPA per play on one incomplete goal
- WR Brian Thomas Jr: -0.61 EPA per play on 7 targets, coming down with only one catch and one drop. Thomas ended the day with a 14% success price and first down price, but additionally had a 2.48 EPA per play within the run sport attributable to his dashing landing.
- WR Travis Hunter: -0.65 EPA per play on eight targets leading to a 50% success price, none of his six receptions going for first downs, and Lawrence’s underthrown interception being meant for Hunter. Whereas the interception clearly doesn’t fall on Hunter, being the meant goal does negatively impression his EPA numbers.
Clearly, this matchup ended up being a good finish sport, with Lawrence and Thomas Jr struggling to attach and Hunter being closely concerned within the brief sport, looking for YAC alternatives the tight ends and Dyami Brown. In a reasonably important shift, when mirrored in opposition to prior seasons, Lawrence did most of his harm inside the numbers, peppering Unusual and Brown on deep curls and digs. In prior seasons, velocity outs and sideline hitches dominated the chart.
The offensive line gave up zero sacks and solely six pressures with an 18.2 stress share, per NFL Professional. That is final within the NFL, and most significantly, not inflated by a low time to throw (TTT), as Subsequent Gen Stats have the Jaguars at fifteenth within the league in TTT at 2.74 seconds. The blocking was stable, sans Patrick Mekari’s 10-yard holding penalty on Lawrence’s third quarter scramble.
- DE Josh Hines Allen collected 8 QB pressures on 28 passing snaps (per NFL Professional) with a 28.6% stress price, which leads all NFL defenders previous to Monday Evening Soccer (MNF)
- DE Travon Walker had 4 QB pressures on 28 passing snaps with a 14.3% stress price
- DT Arik Armstead had 2 pressures on 33 passing snaps with a 6.1% DT stress price
- DL Dawuane Smoot had 1 stress (a sack) on 22 passing snaps with a 4.5% stress price
Whereas the Jacksonville entrance got here away with only one sack on the day, they have been fairly energetic up entrance, maintaining Bryce Younger uncomfortable within the pocket. As a protection, the Jaguars are at the moment sixth within the NFL in complete pressures with 16 and ninth in stress price at 40.0% previous to Monday Evening Soccer.
5. Run Protection Analysis
Whereas the Jacksonville protection began off fairly shaky on the bottom, within the first few sequence, the Jaguars protection was capable of maintain Carolina again after the climate delay, with Panthers operating backs dashing for simply 3.65 yards per carry (20 carries for 73 yards) on the day whereas in comeback mode. On the 25 complete rushes (together with QB scrambles) Carolina rushed for a complete of 113 yards. The 4.5 yards per play is at the moment twentieth within the NFL with Jacksonville sporting a:
- 16.0% run stuff price (twentieth)
- -0.01 EPA per rush allowed (fifteenth)
- +0.29 dashing yards over anticipated (twentieth)
- 1.87 yards earlier than contact per try (twenty third)
- 2.69 yards after contact per try (thirteenth)
The Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts have been the one groups within the NFL to not stack the field as soon as in week one (8+ defenders at or close to the road of scrimmage on the snap). Because the numbers point out, it wasn’t the prettiest strategy to get to a win, with missed tackles nonetheless rearing their head, however these numbers have been additionally dragged down by QB scrambles, the place Bryce Younger rushed for 40 yards on 5 referred to as move performs. Nonetheless, operating QBs are a factor and the Jaguars should work out learn how to get them on the bottom. Jacksonville allowed a 22-yard rush to Younger on a second quarter third-and-11 with a diving Dennis Gardeck unable to get the QB down across the line of scrimmage.
The secondary in all probability had a superb day while you’ve held the opposing quarterback to a -0.21 EPA per play (seventeenth percentile for all QBs from 2010 to 2020). Younger’s completion share over anticipated was -12.4 (ninth percentile). Clearly, not the entire credit score goes to the secondary, as Younger additionally didn’t have his finest day seeing the sector or throwing the ball, however you play the crew that traces up on Sunday.
On the tape, each security Andrew Wingard and Eric Murray had nice video games, with Murray’s sole error occurring on the fourth quarter Chuba Hubbard landing catch, the place he missed the sideline deal with try with 4:47 remaining within the sport and a chance to close the door.
LB Ventrell Miller, CB Jourdan Lewis, and CB Tyson Campbell every had nice last-second move breakups on passes that have been within the Panthers’ receivers’ fingers on this one. Total, each Murray and Lewis practically deserved defensive participant of the sport honors, if not for Foye enjoying an unreal sport.
Travis Hunter had a reasonably quiet day in protection, exterior of giving up barely to a lot house to Tet McMillian on a second quarter, third-and-six slant that went for 12 yards.
Cam Little went 4 for 4 with an extended of 47 yards whereas making each of his further level makes an attempt. Little did, nevertheless, have one kickoff wanting the touchdown zone and one other exit of bounds. Punter Logan Cooke punted simply twice, with a median of 55.5 yards, an extended of 57 yards. One punt was downed inside the 20. Rayaun Lane and Antonio Johnson have been the beginning gunners on the punt crew with Lane additionally making a deal with on a second quarter kickoff.
Parker Washington had only one punt return alternative, with Carolina solely punting twice whereas in comeback mode. His one return went for simply 7.0 yards. Bhayshaul Tuten muffed his sole kick return alternative, leading to only a 12.0-yard return to the 22-yard line. Tank Bigsby’s lone kick return went for 20.0 yards, to the 28-yard line.
- C Robert Hainsey – Holding (10 yards)
- TE Johnny Mundt – Holding (10 yards)
- WR Dyami Brown – Holding (10 yards)
- RG Patrick Mekari – Holding (10 yards)
- RB LeQuint Allen – Holding throughout punt return (offsetting penalties)
- LG Ezra Cleveland – Ineligible Participant Downfield (declined)
- LT Walker Little – False Begin (5 yards)
- QB Trevor Lawrence (2)
- Intentional Grounding (12 yards)
- Delay of sport (5 yards)
- CB Jarrian Jones – Move interference (26 yards)
- CB Jourdan Lewis – Defensive holding (5 yards & nullified Andrew Wingard pick-six)
- Ok Cam Little (2)
- Kick wanting the touchdown zone (ball on the 40-yard line)
- Kick off out of bounds (ball on the 40-yard line)
As we mentioned within the post-game evaluation, whereas a profitable effort on the sector, the Jaguars nonetheless racked up 11 penalties for 93 yards to Carolina’s 4 penalties for 35 yards. After we think about that it was actually 13 complete penalties, unfold throughout each section of the sport, that merely is not going to do in opposition to higher rosters. A gap drive with three penalties for 32 yards (two of which have been holding penalties), plus a 3rd quarter drive with two further holding penalties, should be cleaned up rapidly.
They gained. They discovered a strategy to cope with adversity:
- An early 66-minute rain delay
- 9 offensive penalties continuously placing them behind on down and distance
- 2 kickoffs setting them up in unfavorable subject place
- Dropping their beginning proper deal with early within the fourth quarter
Let’s be trustworthy; we’ve seen prior Jacksonville rosters crumble whereas going through comparable or smaller obstacles resembling Sunday. This one didn’t. Had been the penalties self-inflicted? Sure. Have they got to appropriate them? Completely. However they’re making these corrections whereas coming off a win, in contrast to the 2022 five-turnover, wet Philadelphia Eagles matchup or the 2024 Week 5 Colts sport, the place the crew tried their hardest to present it away to Indianapolis. They didn’t right here. The protection held Carolina to a turnover on downs after the Jarrian Jones move interference penalty, they pressured a fumble on the Cam Little kickoff out of bounds and acquired one other turnover on downs on the kickoff wanting the touchdown zone. Whereas arguably child steps, that’s progress, and possibly the perfect you may hope for in sport one in every of 12 months one in a brand new scheme, new roster, and general new regime.
That’s it from me for week 1! What have been your takeaways from the sport, Duval? Tell us within the feedback!