The Jacksonville Jaguars dropped a heartbreaker in week two at Cincinnati. After offering the stay takeaways and lingering questions from this weeks’ recreation, we take a more in-depth evaluate of the matchup after evaluating the televised gameplay. As a word, this evaluate relies on the non-all-22 movie, whereas being printed earlier than the PFF grades are launched (in an effort to stay really uninfluenced and unbiased on what we see). Moreover, this model of evaluate knowingly locations some limitations on evaluating secondary play with out confirming the total protection seems to be. With that stated, let’s get into some takeaways from the Jaguars’ 31-27 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
*Any opinions famous are these of Travis and never of the whole BCC employees. After all, anybody can disagree when evaluating movie. Any famous EPA, Success Charge, or different knowledge was retrieved from rbsdm.com. Extra knowledge supplied by NFL Professional and NextGenStats.
- EPA = anticipated factors added (statistical metric utilized in soccer analytics to measure how nicely a staff performs relative to expectation on a person play, based mostly on components like discipline place, down and distance, and time remaining to quantify what number of factors a staff is anticipated to attain on a drive)
- SR = success price (% of performs with constructive EPA)
- 1st% = % of performs that earned first downs
- CPOE = completion share over anticipated
- ADoT = common depth of goal
- ADoT and CMP% might not match official statistics as a consequence of excluding spikes & throwaways
1.Quarterback Play Analysis
- 0.08 EPA per play falls throughout the 52nd percentile of all QBs between 2010 and 2020 with minimal 5 performs per recreation
- A complete EPA of three.8 within the fifty fifth percentile
- 58.5 Completion share (CMP%)
- 7.5-yards common depth of goal (ADOT) is within the thirty fourth percentile
- -5% completion share over anticipated (CPOE) is within the twenty eighth percentile
- 49% Success Charge
- 36% First Down Proportion
- 80.6 Passer Ranking
Trevor Lawrence had a particularly up-and-down day on Sunday. His first half efficiency didn’t totally fall on his shoulders, as his preliminary interception got here as a consequence of speedy stress from Trey Hendrickson, as he let the ball go. Nevertheless, there have been further moments within the first half the place Lawrence was clearly urgent to make a play, equivalent to his underthrown deep ball try to Brian Thomas Jr, that was deflected into Travis Hunter, who dropped the ricochet. Moreover, Cincinnati dropped a deflected, contested Travis Hunter goal that was initially dominated an interception, however overturned after evaluate.
Nevertheless, within the second half, Lawrence made up for a lot of of these alternatives, hitting Dyami Brown and Thomas Jr within the landing for would-be landing alternatives the place his supporting solid was unable to capitalize. Brown dropped a landing cross with 4:30 remaining within the recreation, Thomas Jr did not assault the ball on his third-down endzone goal with 11:52 remaining within the recreation, and Thomas dropped the ultimate offensive snap that seemingly would’ve prolonged the drive.
These three performs are “should have it” situations that value Jacksonville an upwards of 18 factors alone.
- RB LeQuint Allen: 0.33 EPA per play on 2 performs
- RB Bhayshul Tuten: 0.23 EPA per play on 8 performs (2.06 receiving EPA per play on 2 targets)
- RB Travis Etienne: -0.04 EPA per play on 14 performs (0.43 receiving EPA per play on 3 targets)
The inside blocking was nice within the run recreation, with the backs displaying unimaginable imaginative and prescient to make one minimize and get upfield. Robert Hainsey working 25-yards down the sphere, blocking the defender on Travis Etienne’s 30-yard run, spotlighted his athleticism and allowed Etienne one other 10-yards. LT Walker Little had his fingers full with Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson on performs when the staff didn’t give him assist. He gave up practically speedy stress that resulted in Lawrence’s redzone interception whereas being hit. He additionally surrendered a QB hit on Dyami’s opening landing catch. Hendrickson ended the day with 5 pressures (tied for eleventh within the NFL), through Subsequent Gen Stats. I beloved Anton Harrison’s recreation this week and really had no points on the tape.
With two Monday Night time Soccer video games remaining, the Jaguars lead the NFL in speeding yards (169.5) and are tied for the league lead in yards per carry (5.7) with the Baltimore Ravens. They’ve 6 explosive rushes on the yr (tied at tenth) and a league-leading 6.8% stuffed run price per NFL Professional.
- WR Parker Washington: 1.19 EPA per play on 6 targets
- WR Dyami Brown: 0.77 EPA per play on 7 targets
- TE Brenton Unusual: -0.15 EPA per play on 6 targets
- WR Tim Patrick: -0.44 EPA per play on 1 goal
- WR Brian Thomas Jr: -0.59 EPA per play on 12 targets
- WR Travis Hunter: -0.81 EPA per play on 6 targets
Dyami Brown produced a very environment friendly recreation, usually blocking nicely down the sphere on speeding performs, catching 5/6 cross makes an attempt, and scoring a landing. Nevertheless, he additionally dropped a wide-open landing that seemingly wraps this recreation up.
Travis Hunter had a extra concerned day, together with his offensive snap share being much like week one, offensively, however his general defensive utilization growing. Per NFL Professional, “Travis Hunter didn’t play a defensive snap till cornerback Jarrian Jones was injured late within the first quarter.” On his most notable performs, Hunter had a possibility to come back down with a deflected BTJ deep ball try that fell incomplete, was focused on Trevor Lawrence’s underthrown redzone interception, and was in any other case primarily focused within the quick-game space (screens, pop passes, and many others).
Parker Washington had an unimaginable recreation, figuring out of the slot. His spotlight play was his first-half catch, climbing the ladder over the Bengals defender to usher in the deflected catch. Nevertheless, his greatest play was his 40-yard catch and run the place he shed a tackler to select up the remaining 17-yards after the catch.
Whereas Brenton Unusual’s snap manufacturing elevated to 90% this week, he was focused simply 5 instances – all within the fast checkdown space. A quiet recreation for Brenton, exterior of blocking.
The working backs all produced high quality days catching the ball, with each Etienne and Tuten catching two targets and a landing every.
The most important matter of dialog on Sunday was clearly the play of second-year receiver Brian Thomas Jr, who obtained the lion’s share of Lawrence’s cross makes an attempt, leaving the sport with a 28.6% goal share. Nevertheless, Thomas caught simply 4 of these targets (33.3%) whereas seemingly shying away from contact mid-route or not attacking the ball within the air. On Trevor Lawrence’s second-quarter interception, Thomas Jr gave the impression to be trying to sit his route down throughout the zone proper because the cross was being thrown. With the protection barreling down, this is sensible to search out the outlet within the zone. Sadly, the QB and WR once more learn the play in another way, and with Thomas tipping the cross in the midst of the sphere, the play resulted in a turnover.
Coach Coen, on his Monday media availability acknowledged that this throw, if tried would ideally be on the Thomas’s physique, as an alternative of main him inside, as there was no bottom risk holding the defender. Nevertheless, the much less excusable performs have been the late landing goal the place BTJ anticipates contact, solely reaching up for the ball, as an alternative of leaping for the contested goal, and the fourth down drop with the sport on the road.
The Jacksonville entrance seven blitzed Jake Browning on 27.3% of his dropbacks (per NFL Professional), offering him a mean 2.42 seconds to throw on his 32 cross makes an attempt. Nevertheless, he usually made Jacksonville pay with an 18.8% deep ball share. His fast time to throw negated a lot of the Jaguars’ skill to get dwelling, as he merely went to his playmakers shortly working isolation sideline routes, and allowed them to make performs on the ball on the backend. 37.5% of Tee Higgins’ 8 targets have been deep, as have been 12.5% of Jamar Chase’s 16 targets. With Joe Burrow and Browning mixed, the Cincinnati Bengals had the NFL’s quickest time to throw in week two (2.53 seconds), whereas Jacksonville nonetheless got here away with three sacks (seventh for the week) and 14 pressures (fifteenth).
DE Travon Walker had a near-career day with a sack and 4 QB pressures (tied for 18th of certified defenders in week 2). He additionally brought about an interception as a consequence of his QB hit on Browning after stunting inside.
DE Josh-Hines-Allen, DT Arik Armstead, LB Devin Lloyd, and S Eric Murray all tied for thirty fourth within the league at 3 QB pressures every. Armstead additionally had a sack together with LB Foye Oluokun. Whereas going through a staff that was fast to get the ball out, the protection did its job in getting dwelling fairly shortly.
The Jacksonville defensive entrance was dominant within the run recreation, going through the Bengals’ inconsistent offensive line. Jacksonville held Cincinnati to 2.8 yards per rush on 17 carries, with an extended of 11-yards. Holding Bengals RB Chase Brown to a -1.2 speeding EPA and -1.1 speeding yards over anticipated per try (RYOE/att) and just one explosive rush spells a very good day up entrance for Jacksonville. The Jaguars wrapped up Sunday, surrendering the second-least speeding yards per recreation at 48-yards, permitting the fourth-least per carry (2.8). They landed twenty first within the NFL in week two with an 11.8% run stuff price, nevertheless, per Subsequent Gen Stats.
As we mentioned within the post-game evaluate, the Bengals have been a identified matchup nightmare when making an attempt to play man protection, as most groups merely don’t have a quantity two or three cornerback equal to a quantity two like Tee Higgins.
The first subject in protection for a lot of the Jacksonville secondary was their occasional pressures with man protection on the backend, which resulted within the secondary being unable to get their heads on the ball in contested catch situations. After they gave blitz seems to be and performed zone, the staff performed fairly nicely. Travis Hunter’s cross interference was a horrible name the place he’s getting stiff-armed in his neck and face by the Bengals receiver, but nonetheless will get his head round late, and makes a play on the ball. I assumed he had a very strong day in protection, general. He gave up a 13-yard and a 16-yard outs to Chase, however made an amazing play on Andre Losivas’ sideline try to safe a force-out.
The linebacker group performed fairly stout in protection, with Foye securing a cross breakup, and Devin Lloyd caught what was successfully a pick-six; nevertheless, the referee blew the play lifeless. It was a really nice general day in protection for the beneath guys.
Jamar Chase had a day on Sunday, which was one thing that Coach Liam Coen acknowledged heading into the week. Nevertheless, the mixture of Chase and Tee Higgins’ play in opposition to Tyson Campbell was barely problematic as we speak. The 4-yard Chase landing, the place Campbell is lined up in press alignment, but gave Jamar the speedy inside launch with out getting a hand on the receiver, is a play that I’m certain Campbell wish to have again. Tyson was additionally crushed off the road for a 42-yard Tee Higgins landing, the place Campbell and Wingard each missed the deal with try.
Jarrian Jones handled a again harm late within the first quarter. Whereas he gave up a number of beneath catches pre-injury to Jamar Chase, it was a fairly positive recreation by Jones earlier than giving up the one-handed Tinsley 13-yard landing.
Jourdan Lewis was once more dominant within the secondary, enjoying primarily out of the slot nook spot. Eric Murray once more performed one heck of a recreation at security with a number of nice fills in run assist, an interception, and only some beneath catches given up, the place he rallied to make the cease. Andrew Wingard additionally performed fairly nicely, sans the beforehand talked about missed Tee Higgins deal with leading to a landing.
When enjoying with eyes on the quarterback, they added three interceptions to their three turnovers from week one. Their six turnovers compelled in two weeks lead the NFL.
Cam Little went 2/2 on discipline targets with an extended of 42-yards and completed 3/3 on further factors. Punter Logan Cooke averaged 47.5-yards on every punt, with an extended of 60-yards, and one falling inside the 20.
Parker Washington had two punt returns for a 9.5 common and an extended of 15-yards whereas the staff averaged 25.3 yards per kick return and an extended of 30-yards.
Jacksonville misplaced a winnable recreation on Sunday, primarily as a consequence of miscues. Whereas 6 penalties for 55 yards appears to be on the decrease aspect, there have been one other 5 declined flags on the day, and sadly, a number of questionable calls in opposition to the secondary. However, the largest opponent for Jacksonville on Sunday was itself with a number of dropped unlawful shift penalties, a number of dropped passes (together with Dyami Drown’s dropped landing and Brian Thomas Jr’s dropped fourth down conversion), and the Travis Hunter cross interference that by no means was.
I do know many will disagree on the play name to go for the win on fourth-and-5 from the seven-yard line. Nevertheless, I consider Coen made the right resolution there. To go a step additional, he even made the right play name there. Generally it’s a must to belief your guys (IE: your QB1 and your WR1) to be the blokes to make a gotta have it play. The extra questionable play name was the third-and-2 with 6:45 remaining within the recreation. Jacksonville picked up 4-yards on second-and-6 through Bhayshul Tuten. A bodily, run-first staff averaging over 5-yards per carry selected to throw a 30-yard Brian Thomas Jr incompletion into double protection over working the ball in a possibility to indicate physicality to shut the sport out. That’s the one I query most.
Defensively, the staff gave up 31-points, primarily to a backup quarterback. Nevertheless, I merely didn’t see a lot within the movie to make me query the precise play calls. They trusted their defensive backs to make performs with the push pressuring a backup, and so they have been unable to. At the moment, Campanile countered with much less man protection, and the turnovers continued. They acquired off the sphere twice within the fourth quarter and obtained an unlucky cross interference name to get Cincinnati in scoring vary. It’s important to have a cease there, however I’m probably not certain there’s something there that falls on the employees, versus the roster. However, Jacksonville gave up the seventh-most factors within the NFL in week two, principally to a backup QB and dominant exterior weapons, whereas surrendering the sixth-most passing yards per recreation.
That’s it from me for week 2! What have been your takeaways from the sport, Duval? Tell us within the feedback!